Forecasting

IMF Forecasts: Process, Quality, and Country Perspectives, An evaluation report of the Independent Evaluation Office of the International Monetary Fund, Washington:  2014. (Lead author.) http://www.ieo-imf.org/ieo/files/completedevaluations/IMFF%20-%20Report.pdf

"User Perspectives on IMF Forecasts: Survey Methodology and Results," IEO Background Document No. BD/14/01. Washington: Independent Evaluation Office of the IMF, 2014. (With Andrew Martinez) http://www.ieo-imf.org/ieo/files/completedevaluations/Background%20Document%201.pdf

"On the Accuracy and Efficiency of IMF Forecasts: A Survey and Some Extensions," IEO Background Paper No. BP/14/04. Washington: Independent Evaluation Office of the IMF, 2014. (With Andrew Martinez) http://www.ieo-imf.org/ieo/files/completedevaluations/BP-14-04.pdf

"The IMF/WEO Forecast Process," IEO Background Paper No. BP/14/03. Washington: Independent Evaluation Office of the IMF, 201). (With Andrew Martinez and Michael Salemi) http://www.ieo-imf.org/ieo/files/completedevaluations/BP-14-03.pdf